Asset Classes
Container leases
Container leases
Does your product fit here?
Container leasing sits at the intersection of equipment finance and trade infrastructure. If you’re financing intermodal shipping containers leased to ocean carriers, you’re in the right place. The asset is simple (steel boxes), but the market dynamics, counterparty concentration, and residual value economics require specialized understanding.
Operating leases dominate the container leasing market. The lessor owns the container, leases it to a shipping line for 1-5 years, and retains residual value risk. When the lease expires, the lessor re-leases, sells, or scraps the unit. This is the core product for container-backed financings.
Finance leases transfer economic ownership to the lessee over the lease term. These are less common in containers because shipping lines prefer operating lease treatment for balance sheet flexibility. If you’re evaluating a finance lease portfolio, treat it more like equipment-backed term debt than traditional container lease paper.
Sale-leaseback transactions occur when shipping lines sell their owned fleets to lessors and lease the containers back. These create concentrated counterparty exposure to a single shipping line. Capital providers typically haircut these portfolios or require additional credit support.
What doesn’t fit here
Intermodal chassis (the wheeled frames that carry containers on trucks) look similar but have different economics. Chassis stay within domestic markets, face different counterparties (trucking companies, railroads, and intermodal marketing companies rather than ocean carriers), and depreciate differently. Some lessors run combined container/chassis fleets, but capital providers usually separate the pools for underwriting.
Specialized containers like tank containers (for liquids and chemicals), flat-racks (for oversized cargo), and open-tops require separate treatment. Per-unit values run 3-10x standard dry containers, counterparty concentration is higher, and the secondary market is thinner. You can include reefers (refrigerated containers) in standard pools with appropriate haircuts, but tank and flat-rack exposure above 5-10% typically needs carve-out treatment.
Depot equipment and handling gear is not container finance. Neither is vessel equipment. If you’re looking at cranes, trailers, or ship-mounted gear, see Shipping and Maritime Finance or Equipment Leases and Loans.
How capital providers classify lessors
| Tier | Characteristics | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | 1M+ TEU fleet, top 10 global lessor, through-cycle track record, diversified shipping line counterparties | Triton, Textainer, Beacon, SeaCube |
| Tier 2 | 100K-500K TEU, regional or specialized focus, established but less scale | CAI International, regional Asian lessors |
| Tier 3 | Sub-100K TEU, limited track record, startup or niche operator | Requires sponsor support or higher subordination |
Tier matters for pricing. A Tier 1 lessor with a diversified portfolio can achieve SOFR + 200-250 bps on senior warehouse debt. A Tier 3 lessor with concentrated counterparty exposure might face SOFR + 350-450 bps or require credit enhancement.
Market benchmarks and comps
The global container fleet totals roughly 50 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units). Container leasing companies own approximately 55% of this fleet, with shipping lines owning the remainder. The top 10 lessors control about 80% of the leased fleet, making this a concentrated industry.
Lease rate benchmarks
Container lease economics are driven by per diem rates (daily lease payments) relative to container cost. Current mid-2026 benchmarks:
| Container Type | Per Diem ($/day) | New-Build Cost | Implied Gross Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20ft dry standard | $0.85-1.20 | $1,800-2,200 | 14-20% |
| 40ft dry standard | $1.40-2.00 | $3,200-4,000 | 13-18% |
| 40ft high-cube | $1.50-2.20 | $3,400-4,200 | 14-19% |
| 40ft reefer | $8-14 | $25,000-35,000 | 10-15% |
Illustrative pricing. See pricing disclaimer.
Note: Per diem rates swing dramatically through cycles. At the 2021 peak, 40ft dry containers commanded $2.50-3.00/day. During the 2016 trough, rates dropped below $0.80/day. Underwrite to the cycle, not the current rate.
Utilization benchmarks
Utilization is the percentage of the fleet currently on lease (generating revenue). This is the key operational metric for container lessors:
| Market Condition | Utilization | Implications |
|---|---|---|
| Strong market | 95-98% | Pricing power, strong residual values |
| Normal market | 90-94% | Stable economics, moderate competition |
| Weak market | 85-92% | Pricing pressure, rising off-hire inventory |
| Stressed market | 75-85% | Cash flow pressure, depressed residuals |
Utilization below 85% sustained over multiple quarters signals serious stress. The 2016 shipping crisis pushed several lessors below 80% utilization, triggering covenant defaults and restructurings.
Residual value benchmarks
Containers depreciate predictably for the first 10-12 years, then more steeply as they approach end-of-life:
| Age | % of Original Cost | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 55-65% | Standard lease-back eligible |
| 8 years | 40-50% | Still financeable, tighter terms |
| 12 years | 30-40% | Approaching secondary-use market |
| 15 years | 15-25% | Domestic or emerging market use |
| 20+ years | Scrap value | $800-1,200/TEU (steel recovery) |
Illustrative pricing. See pricing disclaimer.
Scrap value provides a floor. Even a fully depreciated container has steel value of $800-1,200 depending on weight and steel prices. This floor protects capital providers from total loss, though reaching scrap value typically means significant impairment on the financing.
Financing benchmarks
| Structure | Advance Rate | Pricing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senior warehouse (Tier 1) | 70-80% NBV | SOFR + 200-275 bps | Portfolio covenants |
| Senior warehouse (Tier 2/3) | 60-70% NBV | SOFR + 275-400 bps | Tighter concentration limits |
| Term ABS (AAA) | 35-45% of pool | SOFR + 125-175 bps | Rating agency enhancement |
| Term ABS (BBB) | 10-15% of pool | SOFR + 350-475 bps | First loss cushion |
| Private placement | 65-75% | 8-12% all-in | Insurance/pension capital |
Illustrative pricing. See pricing disclaimer.
What lenders and investors focus on
1. Fleet composition and age profile
The age and mix of the container fleet drive both current economics and terminal value.
Average fleet age is the single most important metric. A fleet averaging 5 years has 10+ years of remaining economic life and strong residual values. A fleet averaging 10 years faces near-term replacement cycles and compressed residuals. Capital providers typically cap average fleet age at 8-9 years for standard financing; older fleets require haircuts or separate treatment.
Container type distribution matters for risk and return. Standard dry containers (20ft and 40ft) are commodity products with deep secondary markets. Reefers command higher per diems but cost 8-10x more and have more concentrated buyer/lessee pools. Specialized equipment (tanks, flat-racks) requires dedicated underwriting.
New-build vs. used acquisition strategy affects portfolio quality. Lessors that primarily buy new containers from manufacturers have predictable depreciation curves and warranty coverage. Lessors that acquire used containers or portfolios may get better pricing but take more residual risk.
2. Lessee diversification and credit quality
Container lessors lease primarily to shipping lines. The global container shipping industry is highly concentrated: the top 10 carriers control roughly 85% of global capacity. This creates inherent counterparty concentration in any container lease portfolio.
Top 10 lessee concentration typically runs 60-80% of portfolio revenue. Capital providers accept this given the industry structure but apply concentration limits. Single-lessee exposure above 15% usually requires credit enhancement or is excluded from the borrowing base.
Shipping line credit quality varies significantly:
| Tier | Examples | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Strong | Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM | Investment-grade or near-IG, through-cycle profitable |
| Moderate | Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Evergreen | Solid balance sheets, some cycle volatility |
| Weaker | Regional carriers, smaller lines | Higher default risk, may require haircuts |
Lease maturity profile creates recontracting risk. If 40% of leases expire in the next 12 months, the lessor faces significant rollover exposure. Staggered maturities across 3-5 years provide more stable cash flows.
3. Utilization and redeployment capability
Current utilization tells you how much of the fleet is generating revenue. But historical utilization through cycles tells you how the lessor performs under stress.
Depot network matters for redeployment. When containers come off lease, they need storage, maintenance, and repositioning. Lessors with owned or contracted depot capacity across major trade hubs can redeploy containers faster than those relying on third parties.
Off-hire container management is where operational capability shows. How quickly does the lessor identify off-hire units? What’s the typical repositioning time and cost? Strong lessors maintain real-time visibility into their fleet and can redeploy containers within 30-60 days. Weak lessors may have containers sitting idle for 6+ months.
4. Lease economics and cash flow
Revenue per CEU (cost-equivalent unit, which normalizes for different container types) tells you the portfolio’s earning power. Compare against market benchmarks to assess whether the lessor has pricing power or is competing on volume.
Direct operating costs include depot fees, maintenance and repair, repositioning, and insurance. These run 15-25% of gross revenue for a well-managed lessor. Above 30% suggests operational inefficiency.
Net yield after operating expenses is what matters for debt service. A lessor generating 12% gross yield with 20% operating costs produces 9.6% net yield. Run the math through scenarios where per diem rates drop 30-40% (a typical cycle move) and operating costs rise due to higher off-hire inventory.
5. Residual value and remarketing
Residual value assumptions embedded in financings need stress testing. If the financing assumes 30% residual value at year 12, what happens if actual realization is 20%? Run the waterfall.
Secondary market access varies by container type and condition. Standard dry containers have liquid markets in emerging economies (for storage, housing, or continued shipping use). Specialized equipment has thinner markets.
Sale vs. scrap decisions affect realized residuals. Lessors with active remarketing operations can often achieve 10-20% premiums over scrap value by selling to secondary users. Those without remarketing capability may send containers directly to scrap yards.
Typical structures used
Warehouse facility
The standard structure for container leasing companies seeking revolving capital.
How it works: The lessor pledges its container fleet as collateral and borrows against the net book value (NBV) or appraised value. As containers are added or removed from the fleet, the borrowing base adjusts.
Typical terms:
| Parameter | Tier 1 Lessor | Tier 2/3 Lessor |
|---|---|---|
| Advance rate | 70-80% of NBV | 60-70% of NBV |
| Pricing | SOFR + 200-275 bps | SOFR + 300-400 bps |
| Facility size | $200M-$1B+ | $50M-$300M |
| Tenor | 3-5 years revolving | 2-3 years revolving |
| Amortization | Interest only during revolving | May require periodic paydowns |
Key covenants:
- Utilization floor (typically 85-88%)
- Counterparty concentration limits (10-15% single lessee)
- Fleet age caps (average age <8-9 years)
- Minimum tangible net worth
- Leverage ratio (debt/equity)
Best for: Established lessors with diversified fleets needing flexible capital for fleet growth and replacement.
Term ABS
Securitization of container lease cash flows into rated tranches.
How it works: The lessor sells or contributes a defined pool of containers and associated leases to an SPV. The SPV issues rated notes backed by lease payments and residual values. Enhancement comes from subordination, overcollateralization, and reserve accounts.
Typical structure:
| Tranche | Size | Enhancement | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 55-65% | 35-45% | SOFR + 125-175 bps |
| AA | 10-15% | 25-30% | SOFR + 200-275 bps |
| A | 8-12% | 15-20% | SOFR + 275-350 bps |
| BBB | 5-8% | 10-15% | SOFR + 400-500 bps |
| Residual/Equity | 8-15% | First loss | Unleveraged equity return |
Illustrative pricing. See pricing disclaimer.
Term: 5-7 years scheduled, with clean-up call when pool balance falls below 10%.
Best for: Larger lessors seeking term funding, liability management, or diversification from bank warehouse providers.
Private placement
Direct placement with insurance companies or pension funds.
How it works: The lessor issues notes directly to institutional investors, typically secured by a portfolio of containers. Notes may be rated (for NAIC purposes) or unrated.
Typical terms:
- Size: $50M-$500M
- Tenor: 5-10 years
- Pricing: 8-12% all-in depending on subordination and lessor quality
- NAIC designation: NAIC-1 or NAIC-2 for senior tranches from Tier 1 lessors
Best for: Lessors seeking long-dated capital without the complexity of public ABS execution, or those wanting to diversify funding sources beyond banks.
Sale-leaseback financing
Capital provider finances a lessor’s acquisition of containers from a shipping line, which then leases the containers back.
Key risk: Concentrated counterparty exposure. If you finance a $200M sale-leaseback and the shipping line represents 100% of lessees, you have single-name credit risk.
Mitigants:
- Credit enhancement from lessor
- Diversification into broader portfolio post-acquisition
- Guarantees or letters of credit from shipping line
Best for: Opportunistic transactions during shipping line distress or fleet rationalization. Requires careful credit work on the shipping line counterparty.
Asset-class-specific structural features
Collateral perfection
Containers have no title system. Unlike vehicles with DMV titles or aircraft with FAA registrations, containers are identified only by their BIC codes (standardized identification plates). This affects how security interests are perfected.
UCC filing: Capital providers file UCC-1 financing statements against the lessor’s container fleet. The filing covers “all containers now owned or hereafter acquired” or may be limited to specific pools.
Physical identification: BIC codes (issued by the Bureau International des Containers) provide unique identification. Each container is marked with its BIC code, which maps to the lessor’s registry.
Audit requirements: Because there’s no centralized title system, capital providers require periodic physical audits. A third-party auditor visits depots and shipping terminals to verify container existence, condition, and marking. Typical audit scope covers 5-10% of the fleet annually.
Depreciation and book value
Standard book depreciation: Most lessors depreciate containers over 12-15 years to a 10-15% residual value. This produces straight-line depreciation of roughly 6-7% per year.
Lender underwriting: Capital providers apply more conservative depreciation assumptions, particularly for older containers. A typical lender might assume:
- Years 1-8: Book depreciation accepted
- Years 9-12: Additional 5-10% haircut to book
- Years 13+: Marked to estimated realizable value or scrap
Residual value disputes: If the lessor’s book residual is $800 per TEU but the lender underwrites to $600, the advance rate effectively declines. Negotiate residual assumptions upfront.
Insurance requirements
| Coverage | Purpose | Typical Requirement |
|---|---|---|
| All-risk physical damage | Covers container loss or damage | 100% of insured value |
| Marine cargo liability | Covers damage to contents | Per industry standard |
| Business interruption | Covers revenue loss during repair | 90-180 days |
| Lessor’s interest | Protects lender if primary coverage fails | Required |
Insurance is assigned to the lender as loss payee. For larger fleets, lessors typically maintain blanket policies rather than per-container coverage.
Utilization and cash trapping
The utilization covenant is the key structural protection in container finance. When utilization drops, revenue declines while fixed costs (depreciation, overhead, debt service) remain constant.
Typical covenant structure:
- Trigger level: 85-88% utilization
- Remedy: Excess cash trapped in reserve account
- Cure: Cash released when utilization recovers above trigger for 2-3 consecutive periods
Calculation nuances: Utilization can be calculated by TEU count or by value. Value-weighted utilization gives more weight to higher-value containers (reefers) and may mask deterioration in the standard dry fleet.
Counterparty default scenarios
What happens when a shipping line lessee defaults? The Hanjin bankruptcy in 2016 provides the key case study.
Container recovery: Unlike other equipment, containers are highly portable and fungible. When Hanjin failed, containers were scattered across global ports. Lessors eventually recovered most units, though the process took 6-18 months and involved significant repositioning costs.
Lease termination: Lessors can terminate leases for non-payment and recover containers. However, containers may be on vessels at sea, at foreign ports, or in the hands of cargo receivers. Recovery requires coordination with port authorities and may involve legal proceedings in multiple jurisdictions.
Continued operation: In many cases, cargo and containers continue moving even after a shipping line fails. New operators may assume routes and charter vessels with containers aboard. Lessors may negotiate new leases with successor operators rather than recovering containers.
Important: Counterparty defaults in container leasing rarely result in total loss. But they do result in extended off-hire periods, repositioning costs, and reduced re-lease rates. Build 6-12 months of reduced cash flow into stress scenarios.
Rating agency treatment
Moody’s approach
Moody’s evaluates container ABS through the lens of asset value coverage and cash flow stress testing:
Asset quality factors:
- Fleet age distribution and weighted average age
- Container type mix (higher credit for diversified standard dry fleets)
- Lessor operating track record through prior cycles
Cash flow modeling:
- Base case utilization and per diem assumptions
- Stressed scenarios with 20-30% utilization drops
- Recovery assumptions on defaulted lessees
- Residual value realization at various ages
Servicer assessment: The lessor’s ability to redeploy off-hire containers and maintain fleet value is critical. Moody’s evaluates depot networks, remarketing capabilities, and maintenance programs.
S&P approach
S&P uses portfolio cash flow modeling with explicit residual value stresses:
Residual value haircuts:
- 30-40% haircut to book value in AAA stress
- Higher haircuts for older containers or specialized equipment
- Scrap value floor provides minimum recovery
Counterparty stress:
- Default scenarios for largest lessees
- Assumes 6-12 month off-hire period post-default
- Reduced re-lease rates for recovered containers
Servicer continuity: S&P requires identified backup servicer and transition plan. For container portfolios, this typically means another major lessor or a specialized servicer.
Typical enhancement levels
| Rating | Subordination | Total Credit Enhancement |
|---|---|---|
| AAA | 30-40% | 35-45% |
| AA | 20-28% | 25-33% |
| A | 13-20% | 18-25% |
| BBB | 8-14% | 12-18% |
Enhancement levels for container ABS are higher than auto or equipment ABS due to residual value risk, counterparty concentration, and cycle volatility. A prime auto AAA might have 6-8% enhancement; a container AAA needs 35-45%.
Diligence focus areas
Fleet audit and verification
Physical audit: Engage a third-party firm (SGS, Bureau Veritas, or specialized container inspectors) to visit depots and verify:
- Container existence (BIC code matches registry)
- Physical condition (Grade A/B/C)
- Age consistency with data tape
- Proper BIC marking and lessor identification
Typical scope: 5-10% sample of fleet, covering major depot locations. Cost: $50,000-$150,000 depending on fleet size and geographic spread.
Data reconciliation: Compare the lessor’s internal registry against:
- Insurance schedule
- Lease records
- Depot inventory reports
- Third-party audit findings
Discrepancies above 2-3% require explanation. Missing containers or unreconciled BIC codes are serious findings.
Lease tape analytics
Lessee stratification:
- Top 10 lessee concentration
- Credit quality distribution
- Geographic mix
- Lease maturity schedule
Revenue analytics:
- Weighted average per diem by container type
- Revenue per CEU vs. market benchmarks
- Historical per diem trends by vintage
Off-hire analysis:
- Current off-hire inventory (count and value)
- Average time-to-redeploy historically
- Off-hire location distribution
Lessor operational diligence
Site visit: Visit lessor headquarters and 1-2 major depot locations. Evaluate:
- Fleet tracking systems and data quality
- Depot relationships and contractual arrangements
- Maintenance and repair processes
- Remarketing and sales operations
Team assessment:
- Key person risk (founder-operator models)
- Experience through prior cycles
- Succession planning
Financial analysis:
- Historical utilization performance by quarter
- Operating margin trends
- Debt maturity schedule and refinancing risk
- Tangible net worth trajectory
Market analysis
Cycle positioning: Where are we in the container cycle?
- Current per diem rates vs. 10-year range
- New-build orderbook as % of fleet
- Trade volume growth trends
- Shipping line profitability and balance sheets
Supply indicators:
- New container production schedule
- Factory prices and lead times
- Scrap rates and fleet retirement
Demand indicators:
- Global trade growth forecasts
- Route-level volume trends (Asia-Europe, Transpacific)
- E-commerce and supply chain dynamics
Worked example: warehouse facility for mid-market lessor
You’re evaluating a $150M warehouse facility for a container lessor with a 180,000 TEU fleet.
Portfolio summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Fleet size | 180,000 TEU |
| Net book value | $225M |
| Average fleet age | 6.2 years |
| Container mix | 85% standard dry, 12% reefer, 3% other |
| Current utilization | 94% |
| Top 10 lessee concentration | 72% |
| Largest single lessee | 14% (CMA CGM) |
| Weighted average lease term remaining | 2.4 years |
Cash flow analysis
Annual revenue: 180,000 TEU x $1.35 avg per diem x 365 days x 94% utilization = $83.4M
Operating expenses (22% of revenue): $18.3M
Net operating income: $65.1M
Debt service at 75% advance ($169M facility):
- Interest (SOFR 4.5% + 275 bps spread = 7.25%): $12.3M
- Principal (assume 7-year amort): $24.1M
- Total: $36.4M
DSCR: $65.1M / $36.4M = 1.79x
Stress scenarios
| Scenario | Utilization | Per Diem | Revenue | NOI | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 94% | $1.35 | $83.4M | $65.1M | 1.79x |
| Moderate stress | 88% | $1.15 | $66.4M | $49.4M | 1.36x |
| Severe stress | 80% | $0.90 | $47.3M | $32.1M | 0.88x |
In severe stress (similar to 2016), the facility breaches DSCR covenants. Structure needs:
- Cash trap at 88% utilization
- Utilization floor covenant at 85%
- Reserve account sized for 6 months of interest
Facility terms
| Term | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Advance rate | 67% of NBV ($150M on $225M NBV) |
| Pricing | SOFR + 300 bps |
| Tenor | 3-year revolving |
| Utilization covenant | 85% floor |
| Cash trap trigger | 88% utilization |
| Single lessee limit | 15% |
| Average age cap | 8 years |
| Reserve account | 3 months interest ($3.7M) |
Active participants
Major container lessors
Tier 1:
- Triton International (largest global lessor, 7M+ TEU)
- Textainer (2M+ TEU)
- Beacon Intermodal Leasing (Mitsubishi-backed)
- SeaCube Container Leasing
Tier 2:
- CAI International
- Florens Container Holdings (COSCO affiliate)
- Regional Asian lessors
Banks providing financing
Global banks with container programs:
- JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs
- Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale
- HSBC, Standard Chartered (Asia focus)
Specialized equipment finance banks:
- DVB Bank (until recent restructuring)
- Regional banks with equipment mandates
Credit funds and alternative capital
- Apollo Global Management
- Ares Management
- HPS Investment Partners
- Fortress Investment Group
Insurance companies (MetLife, Prudential, Principal) participate in senior tranches of rated deals.
ABS underwriters
- Citi, JPMorgan, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank
Container ABS is a niche market with sporadic issuance. The same banks that underwrite equipment ABS typically handle container transactions.
Legal counsel
Lender side: Milbank, Latham & Watkins, Sidley Austin
Borrower side: Simpson Thacher, Kirkland & Ellis, Paul Weiss
Maritime specialists: Seward & Kissel, Watson Farley & Williams
Red flags
Portfolio-level red flags
-
Utilization below 85% for 2+ consecutive quarters: Signals either market stress or lessor-specific redeployment problems. Either way, cash flow is impaired.
-
Fleet average age above 8 years without clear turnover plan: Older fleets face compressed residuals and replacement capex. If the lessor isn’t actively scrapping/selling older units and buying new, the portfolio is aging into risk.
-
Top 3 lessee concentration above 50%: Counterparty concentration this high means a single shipping line default could impair majority of revenue. Requires additional credit support or is unfundable.
-
Single lessee above 20% without credit enhancement: Same issue as above. Even investment-grade shipping lines can face stress (see Hanjin, a well-regarded carrier until it wasn’t).
-
High reefer concentration (>25%) without specialized underwriting: Reefers are 8-10x more expensive per unit and have thinner secondary markets. A portfolio concentrated in reefers needs different advance rates and residual assumptions.
Lessor-level red flags
-
Declining fleet size without strategic explanation: Healthy lessors are growing or stable. A shrinking fleet may indicate inability to fund replacements, losing lessee relationships, or strategic retreat.
-
Negative book equity or thin capitalization: Container lessors are asset-heavy businesses. Tangible net worth below 15-20% of total assets signals thin cushion for cycle stress.
-
Key person risk: Founder-operators without succession planning create business continuity risk. Container leasing is a relationship business; losing the key relationship manager can mean losing lessees.
-
No dedicated remarketing or depot operations: Lessors without internal remarketing capability rely on third parties for the most value-critical function. This reduces residual realization and extends off-hire periods.
-
Qualified audit opinion or lack of audited financials: Non-negotiable for institutional financing. If the lessor can’t produce clean audited financials, walk away.
Market-level red flags
-
New-build orderbook exceeding 15% of existing fleet: Signals oversupply coming. Container production is concentrated in a few Chinese factories; when they ramp, supply floods the market within 12-18 months.
-
Major shipping line bankruptcy or restructuring: Hanjin (2016) disrupted the entire lessor universe. Watch for shipping line balance sheet stress, particularly among mid-tier carriers.
-
Trade war or tariff disruption: Container demand tracks global trade. Tariff escalation, port closures, or supply chain disruption directly affects utilization.
-
Container price collapse: New-build prices below $1,500/TEU for standard dry containers indicate severe oversupply. Current containers marked at higher values will face impairment.
Structural red flags
-
Advance rate above 85% of NBV without credit support: At 85%+ advance rate, there’s minimal cushion for residual value deterioration. Requires sponsor guarantee or subordinated tranche.
-
No utilization covenant or floor set below 80%: The utilization covenant is your early warning system. Without it (or with a floor so low it’s never triggered), you won’t have structural protection until it’s too late.
-
Residual value assumptions above industry benchmarks: If the financing model assumes 40% residual at year 12 but industry benchmarks are 30%, you’re underwriting to hope. Check assumptions against actual liquidation data.
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Concentrated lease maturities creating rollover cliff: If 40% of leases mature in a single year, the lessor faces significant recontracting risk. Staggered maturities provide stability.